Will John McCain win a single state if a conservative third party candidate enters the race?

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Tom Tancredo; Tom DeLay; Rick Santorum; James Dobson

There are quite a few McCain haters who could feel like playing the spoiler just to increase their own profiles.

Will one of them run?

Can McCain win a single state if they do?

The latest poll says that Obama would win Texas if they do. Texas doesn’t even have a large African American population.
In McCain-Obama-Santorum, I think Obama wins Alabama, Mississippi and the rest of the heavily black/heavily Christian right states fairly easily.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/21/texas.poll/index.htm

Note this poll is before any of this lobbyist/affair stuff came out…
Note: I didn’t say that the con 3rd party guy would win any states. I think they wouldn’t. They’d do it for the same reason Nader did — to make a point.
I think the results would probably be pretty similar to the TX poll in most of the red states:

Obama 41
McCain 37
ThirdParty 19

Obama would win the blue states very easily.

Tom Delay will drive moderate and conservatives toward McCain. Delay has way too much baggage.

Tancredo and Santorum don’t have the name recognition country wide and many will remember the scandals of Rick Santorum. James Dobson? Isn’t he one of those religious fanatics? He can only hope for a couple of the southern states.

If Bloomberg gets in then McCain has a horse race on his hands.

11 thoughts on “Will John McCain win a single state if a conservative third party candidate enters the race?”

  1. Republicans shot themselves in the foot, lol. They picked an adulteror…hahahahaha. The joke is on them.
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  3. The Times tend to be "liberal". Therefore, they want a Democrat to win. So, they started their attacks early on the Republican nominee.
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  4. Tom Delay will drive moderate and conservatives toward McCain. Delay has way too much baggage.

    Tancredo and Santorum don’t have the name recognition country wide and many will remember the scandals of Rick Santorum. James Dobson? Isn’t he one of those religious fanatics? He can only hope for a couple of the southern states.

    If Bloomberg gets in then McCain has a horse race on his hands.
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  5. Will the democrats win a single state if a non-socialist liberal runs as a third party candidate?
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  6. The last third party candidate to actually carry a state was George Wallace in 1968,. He carried 5 Southern states. He was a Democrat who thought Humphrey was too liberal. No other 3rd party candidate has carried a state since even though Ross Perot and Ralph Nader may have cost Bush (I) and Al Gore elections by sloughing off votes from the major candidates. McCain will carry some states who have a more moderate electorate who votes Republican
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  7. Good question. If a third party from the right does appear McCain will lose without a fight.
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  9. I thin McCain could win a few states, like Republican, yet moderate Indiana, but it would be few. I agree that if a credible (tongue in cheek) conservative forms a third party, then McCain is probably in trouble. I also think the Conservative would win very few places.

    Delay has too much baggage now and Dobson is way over the edge of reason for most folk, except the hard right wing evangelicals. But the other two could be viable, as well as someone like Sam Brownback.

    Personally, being for Obama, I hope they do this, but I also doubt they will. I still think it is the Dems election to lose at this point. It will not be a landslide, but The Dems look to prevail the way things are at this point.
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  10. So you’re asking if a "true conservative" will get in the race to spoil McCain who is SLIGHTLY liberal to guarantee the election will go to someone who is EXTREMELY liberal just to get attention?

    Are you saying that the people you mentioned have egos so big that getting recognition is more important than handing over the country to someone they are opposed to for the next 4-8 years?

    Seriously?
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  11. Democrats are smart. Very few have run as an independant. In fact, I don’t remember anyone ever running as an independant. The Republicans, on the other hand, every once in a while have someone who thinks they have a chance to win. It always hurts the party and they never seem to win.

    If there was a Obama-McCain-Huckabee contest, for example, I think Sen. Obama would win and McCain might win a few states but not very many.

    Obama has been shown in the polls to be popular with several different groups, not just African-Americans.
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